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This year was a difficult one for Americans looking for work. Forecasters don’t see much improvement in their prospects coming in 2026.

The unemployment rate is set to remain elevated through almost all of next year despite solid economic growth, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That unusual combination owes to the growing role of investments in artificial intelligence in powering the expansion without boosting hiring, some say.

A stagnant labor market likely means another year of limited job opportunities and cooling wage increases, exacerbating affordability concerns for American families heading into the midterm elections. It also spells an even greater reliance on the health-care sector, which accounted for nearly all job growth in 2025.

“A lot of the GDP growth we’re getting is from AI infrastructure investments, which don’t generate very many jobs, and there’s some displacement from AI,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “We don’t know how much that is yet. It looks like it’s only the beginning phases of it.”

While economists say the U.S. isn’t in a recession, the second half of 2025 probably felt like it for many job-seekers. In the five months from June to November, the unemployment rate rose half a percentage point, to 4.6% — a rare development outside of business-cycle downturns.

Those with four-year college degrees were hit particularly hard, reflecting an ongoing hiring freeze across so-called white-collar occupations. While their unemployment rate remains somewhat below that for lesser-educated workers, young college graduates have seen their historical advantage in the job search disappear this year.

Hiring rates, meanwhile, looked even worse — low enough that, in decades past, they would have been consistent with even higher levels of unemployment. And layoff announcements have picked up in recent months, adding to Americans’ malaise about the job market.

Workers outside of health care, in particular, have had a difficult go of it: Excluding that sector, nonfarm payroll employment actually fell in the first 11 months of 2025.

There are some positives for the outlook. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates this year and is expected to continue doing so in 2026, and tax cuts alongside some potential easing in the Trump administration’s trade policies — a major source of uncertainty for small businesses this year — should also help, said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co.

But first, there is “probably still a little more labor-market weakening to go, whether that’s another tick or two higher in the unemployment rate,” Pugliese said.

All of that has already added up to slower wage growth as the balance of power in the labor market has continued to shift from workers to employers. It’s a sharp turnaround from 2022 and 2023, when workers had the upper hand and employers were forced to offer higher pay to attract talent.

A Harris Poll conducted for Bloomberg News in October showed 55% of employed Americans were concerned about losing their jobs, and nearly half said they thought it would take at least four months to find a new job of similar quality if they lost their current position.

Various measures of wage growth show pay is now rising at the slowest rate in four years, and low-earners are seeing pay rise by less than top earners — worsening the so-called “K-shaped economy” trend of widening inequality this year.

That’s a risk for Republicans, who were elected to majorities last year in part due to widespread anger over rising prices that exacerbated cost-of-living concerns, as they head into the 2026 campaign season.

“Overall wage growth will likely come close to the pace of inflation, and likely maybe even go a little above overall inflation,” KPMG’s Swonk said. “But the problem is the distribution of wages.”

Black unemployment

Inequality is also increasingly noticeable in who is being hired in the first place. Black Americans have seen their unemployment rate shoot higher over the last several months — to 8.3% in November, from 6% in May — and the ratio of Black to white unemployment now matches the highest level since 2019.

While some of that increase reflects more Black Americans joining the labor force, Black workers historically have been disproportionately impacted whenever the U.S. job market loses steam. The Trump administration’s efforts to shrink the federal workforce, where Black workers are overrepresented, has only added to the difficulties they’ve faced in an already-challenging employment landscape this year.

Michelle Holder, an economist who studies labor-market outcomes for Black Americans, said there is a risk Black unemployment continues to trend higher in 2026.

“Even if the overall unemployment rate continues to revolve around the same 4.6% level, trends are pointing that the fallout of a stagnant economy is increasingly falling more and more heavily on the shoulders of Black workers,” Holder said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect gross domestic product to grow 2% in 2026, powered by solid consumer spending and strong business investment. Yet hiring is set to remain muted as in 2025, and the unemployment rate will be higher on average next year than this year, according to the median estimate.

While respondents said they anticipate the unemployment rate could fall slightly by the end of 2026, Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup Inc., warned the risks are “skewed toward worse outcomes” if hiring fails to pick up.

“This has been a very prolonged period of such low hiring that until that changes, you would be worried that the next step would be larger layoffs,” Clark said.

(With assistance from Dana Morgan.)

©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Elon Musk, already the world’s richest man, scored another huge windfall Friday when the Delaware Supreme Court reversed a decision that deprived him of a $55 billion pay package that Tesla doled out in 2018 as an incentive for its CEO to steer the automaker to new heights.

Besides padding Musk’s current fortune of $679 billion, the restoration of the 2018 pay package vindicates his long-held belief that the Delaware legal system had overstepped its bounds in January 2024 when Chancellor Kathaleen St. Jude McCormick rescinded the compensation in a case brought by a disgruntled Tesla shareholder.

Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment late Friday.

McCormick’s ruling so incensed Musk that it spurred him to spurn Delaware and reincorporate Tesla in Texas. That decision also caused Tesla’s board to scramble for ways to keep its CEO happy, including a successful effort to persuade the company’s shareholders to reaffirm the pay package, which was valued at $44.9 billion at the time of the second vote 18 months ago.

With Musk still signaling discontent, Tesla upped the ante again this year by crafting another pay package that could pay him $1 trillion if he can lead the automaker down a road during the next decade that lifts the company’s market value from its current $1.6 trillion to $8.5 trillion. Shareholders approved that pay package last month, to Musk’s delight.

That may sound like a difficult task, but it also appeared like a long shot for Musk to hit all the targets to qualify for the payout that was dangled in the 2018 package. At that time, Tesla was still struggling to expand its production of electric vehicles and burning through cash.

At the time the 2018 pay package was drawn up, Tesla’s market value was hovering in the $50 billion to $75 billion range. But then the company’s manufacturing problems eased, enabling it to start meeting hot demand for its vehicles, which in turn pumped up its sales and stock price to a level that qualified Musk for the big payout that had been promised him.

But based on evidence that included Musk’s testimony during a 2022 trial, McCormick ruled the pay package had been crafted by a board that was too cozy and beholden to the hard-charging Musk.

In its 49-page ruling, the Delaware Supreme Court cited a variety of errors in McCormick’s 2024 decision and declared the 2018 pay package should be restored. It also awarded Tesla $1 in nominal damages.

Americans are increasingly over the “slop bowl.”

Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava — once stars of the restaurant industry — are struggling as diners tire of all those pick-your-own ingredients piled atop rice or greens. Instead, lunchgoers are choosing offerings with more texture, like sandwiches and tacos, that fill them up and often cost less.

Even Steve Ells, the founder of Chipotle and the burrito bowl that rocketed the chain to lunchtime fame, has moved on. At a Manhattan location of his new concept Counter Service, there’s a red neon sign depicting a lunch bowl with a slash through it. It’s a bowl-free zone, reinforced by a website that proclaims “we love sandwiches” and “anything, as long as it can go on bread.”

“We’ve gone back to handheld,” said Ells, who left Chipotle in 2020. That came more than 15 years after debuting a bowl in response to customers opening up their burritos and asking for a fork to eat the innards. The bowl quickly became the chain’s top-selling menu item and spawned a boom that led to chains such as Cava and Sweetgreen.

Ells said the shift to bowls in 2003 lifted the Chipotle experience and helped broaden its appeal by serving “super premium quality food in a form that didn’t appear like fast food to folks.” Now to stand out, he says Counter Service is “offering sandwiches that are elevated in a lot of ways.” (One of its sandwiches priced at nearly $16 features dry-rubbed pork loin, salsa verde and broccoli rabe.)

Alejandro Paczka, a 28-year-old designer in New York, has cut back on his Chipotle lunch habit and turned to cheaper options, including Subway sandwiches. Some of the shift is for “money reasons,” but people are also just tired of “eating slop” — a reference to “slop bowls,” an increasingly popular description coined by critics.

There’s a resistance to: “I go to the office, and I eat slop” Paczka said. “Kind of like cattle.”

In recent weeks, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., Sweetgreen Inc. and Cava Group Inc. slashed their financial targets, deepening stock declines. That included Chipotle saying revenue this year from established locations will fall at a low-single-digit percentage, which would be the second annual decrease since it went public nearly 20 years ago. (The only other drop came in 2016 during an E. coli outbreak.) The companies have combined to lose $48 billion in market value so far this year, a slump of about 50%.

While the fortunes of these chains have fallen in the last six months, Michael Kaufman, a lecturer for Harvard Business School, says not to “count them out at all.” They became successful by serving fresh food quickly, and that’s what they should remind consumers of in marketing. Wall Street expects Chipotle to bounce back and increase sales from existing stores about 2% next year. Analysts on average project revenue by that measure in 2026 to grow at Cava, but at a slower pace than 2025, and to decline less than 1% at Sweetgreen.

The chains’ responses to this wipeout haven’t impressed investors so far. In a nod to the bowl backlash, Sweetgreen will test a handheld menu item early next year. It’s also talking about a better checkout experience and wanting to become a lifestyle brand.

Chipotle is trying to make its dining rooms cleaner while offering more limited-time menu items to increase interest. Cava sees bringing a “Mediterranean way of life” to restaurants with more greenery and softer seats as a way to boost customer visits.

The companies do realize they have a pricing problem — one ignited by the highest food inflation in decades — and are attempting to convince customers that their higher cost meals are worth it. Sweetgreen has increased some protein portions by 25% to lift perceived value. It will also offer a $10 bowl for a limited time starting in December, according to a person familiar with the plans who couldn’t speak publicly about them.

Nikhil Kalamdani, a 36-year-old sales rep for a New Jersey tech consulting firm, used to love these chains, but rising prices turned him off and now he cooks more.

“The whole idea of just choosing your own toppings and vegetables and everything was great because generally it was less than $10 per bowl,” Kalamdani said of his experience before the pandemic. “Now I’m looking at $12 or $13. The psychology of something surpassing $10 isn’t really appealing.”

Cava Chief Executive Officer Brett Schulman, who co-founded the chain in 2010, said in an interview that restaurants have generally become too expensive. Meanwhile, the number of promotions in the industry has risen back to levels last seen during the recession of the late aughts, he said. But Cava won’t be responding by pouring on the discounts in what he called a “race to the bottom.”

“That’s not what’s gonna sustain our value proposition over the long term,” Schulman said. Instead, the chain needs to offer a “better alternative than what they can create themselves at home or what they can get at the three or four restaurants next to us.”

Chipotle, which at more than $11 billion in annual sales is nearly seven times larger than the combined revenue of Cava and Sweetgreen, also won’t be trying to win back customers with lower prices and deals. Chief Executive Officer Scott Boatwright, who took the helm in 2024 after about seven years at the company, said on a recent earnings call that when sales have weakened in the past, the chain has “doubled down” on execution, not discounts, to revive growth.

“Our value proposition includes food made fresh with the highest-quality ingredients prepared using classic culinary techniques, served in generous portions with reliable accuracy and fast, friendly service,” Boatwright said on a recent earnings call. Chipotle’s offering “has never been stronger.”

These chains are considered fast casual, a concept that blossomed early this century as a middle ground. Restaurants like Panera Bread and Chipotle combined the speed of fast food with the higher quality menu options and nicer settings of full-service dining. The model proved lucrative as chains sprouted up across the country, spanning burgers to pizza and salad.

But not all fast casual chains are struggling. Shake Shack Inc., which sells burgers and chicken sandwiches, has warned of economic headwinds, but still boosted comparable sales growth about 5% last quarter, nearly doubling the average Wall Street projection. Sandwich chain Potbelly boosted sales nearly 7% in September and more than 3% in October, according to Bloomberg Second Measure, which tracks anonymous credit- and debit-card transactions in the US.

Making matters worse for the fast-casual sector is that fast-food chains are pushing value to win cash-strapped customers. McDonald’s earlier this year cut the price of several combo meals and launched an $8 Big Mac and McNugget deal, while Wendy’s rolled out a $3 breakfast.

Casual dining has stepped up promotions, too. At Chili’s, the full-service chain owned by Brinker International Inc., a $10.99 burger deal that includes a drink and bottomless chips helped drive sales growth at existing locations above 20% in recent quarters.

That leaves these fast-casual chains mostly focused on marketing, menu tweaks and improved operations to boost results. Those strategies might prove fruitless until the economy strengthens and the financial situations of the younger consumers who fueled their growth improve, said Joe Pawlak, managing principal with food service data firm Technomic.

According to Pawlak, “limited time offers and innovation are no silver bullet.”

©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve faces an unusually contentious meeting this week that will test Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to corral the necessary support from fellow policymakers for a third straight interest rate cut.

The Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided over whether to lower borrowing costs again. The divisions have been exacerbated by the convoluted nature of the economy: Inflation remains elevated, which would typically lead the Fed to keep its key rate unchanged, while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen, which often leads to rate cuts.

Some economists expect three Fed officials could vote against the quarter-point cut that Powell is likely to support at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, which would be the most dissenting votes in six years. Just 12 of the 19 members vote on rate decisions. Several of the non-voting officials have also said they oppose another rate cut.

“It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,” said William English, an economist at the Yale School of Management and a former top Fed staff member. “And the committee kind of likes to work by consensus, but this is a situation where that consensus is hard to reach.”

The debate, which has also been fueled by a lack of official federal data on employment and inflation during the government shutdown, could be a preview of where the Fed is headed after Powell’s term as chair ends in May. His successor will be appointed by President Donald Trump and is widely expected to be Kevin Hassett, the top White House economic adviser. Hassett may push for faster cuts than other officials would be willing to support.

English said the potential for greater disagreement could be seen as a sign of healthy debate between different views. The Fed’s tradition of reaching unanimous or nearly-unanimous decisions has often been criticized as evidence of “groupthink.” Yet some Fed officials warn that there are downsides to sharp splits. If the committee votes end up as 8-4 or even 7-5, then financial markets could lose confidence in where the central bank is headed next.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, for example, has said that in the case of a 7-5 vote, if just one official changed their view, it could bring about a significant shift in Fed policy.

For now, however, most economists expect what’s called a “hawkish cut” — the Fed will reduce rates, while also signaling that it may stand pat for some time to assess the economy’s health. (“Hawks” refer to officials who generally support higher rates to combat inflation, while “doves” more often support lower rates to boost hiring).

The president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Jeffrey Schmid, is expected to dissent for a second straight meeting in favor of keeping rates unchanged. He may be joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran, who was hurriedly appointed to the Fed’s board by Trump in September, will likely dissent for a third straight meeting in favor of a larger, half-point reduction in the Fed’s key rate.

After the Fed’s last meeting Oct. 28-29, several policymakers said they would prefer to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting, leading Wall Street investors to briefly downgrade the odds of a third rate cut to less than 30%. But then John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that this year’s uptick in inflation appears to be a temporary blip driven by Trump’s tariffs that would likely fade by the middle of 2026.

As a result, “I still see room for a further adjustment” in the Fed’s short-term rate, Williams said. As president of the New York Fed and vice chair of the rate-setting committee, Williams gets to vote on every interest rate decision and is close to Powell. Analysts said it was unlikely Williams would have made such a statement without Powell’s support. Investors rapidly lifted the odds of a cut, which now are at 89%, according to CME Fedwatch.

“You’re seeing the power of the chair,” said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and also a former top Fed staffer. “Members of the committee, my instinct is, are wanting to underscore their support for Powell.”

Powell has come under relentless attack from Trump, who just last month said he would “love to fire his ass” and called Powell “this clown.”

The Fed is required by Congress to seek low inflation and maximum employment, two goals that are potentially in conflict.

For now, Powell and many other Fed officials are more concerned about hiring and unemployment rather than inflation. While the official government jobs reports have been delayed, in September the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the third straight increase and the highest in four years.

Payroll provider ADP, meanwhile, reported that in November, its data showed companies shed 32,000 jobs. And many large firms have announced sweeping layoffs.

Worries that the job market could get worse are a key reason a rate cut in December is likely — but not necessarily beyond that. Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider when they meet in late January. Those figures could show inflation remains stubbornly high or that hiring has rebounded, which would suggest further cuts aren’t needed.

“What they may end up agreeing to do is cut rates now, but give some guidance … that signals that they’re on pause for a while after that,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said.

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